Azerbaijan race analysis

The European Grand Prix wasn't the most spectacular race this season. The race was pretty straightforward, without major accidents or safety car periods. The Mercedes-powered cars enjoyed a significant advantage over their rivals, which enabled Rosberg to win the race easily, while Pérez took another well-deserved podium.

The teams without a Mercedes engine were struggling. The Renault factory team was even outpaced by the Mercedes-powered Manors in qualifying. The similarly disadvantaged Red Bull team did remarkably well in qualifying, but they were not nearly as good in the race. Just as in Canada their low-downforce setup caused them to eat their tires in the race; especially the softer compounds. They were, however, not the only ones.

In the race there were two groups of teams: the teams with tire problems and teams without. Unfortunately for the race, the top teams apparently had very little tire degradation, in contrast to the other teams. Apart from Mercedes, Ferrari and Force India only Bottas, Magnussen and Haryanto managed to finish the race on just one stop. Red Bull and McLaren were really struggling on the supersofts. Based on a laptime analysis with team-dependent tire wear, their degradation was over a second per lap, This explains why they pitted after just a handful of laps. While the McLarens were much happier on the softs, the Red Bulls only seemed to work on the mediums:

Tire wear on the supersofts with respect to tire wear on softs per team (red dots).

The supersoft tires were discarded early in the race, which makes those tires harder to analyze. Congestion and track evolution always decrease the accuracy of the laptime predictions of the first laps. To my surprise the analysis shows that the yellow soft tire was the tire with highest degradation and generally highest outright pace. This may be due to drivers nursing their supersofts to stretch their first stint, but as the leaders were really pushing to build a gap, that seems unlikely. On average, tire degradation on the softs was about 0.07 seconds per lap. The supersofts were slightly more durable with a tire degradation of 0.04 seconds per lap, while the mediums were, as expected, most durable with a tire degradation of only 0.03 seconds per lap.

Azerbaijan race - Driver by driver

Rosberg (1) was flying on supersofts (+0.6). His second stint was a bit inconsistent due to traffic, a wrong engine setting and no pressure from behind. Therefore, he was 0.4s slower than the fastest man on softs, which turned out to be Räikkönen.
Vettel (2) was slightly faster than Rosberg on softs (+0.3), but much slower on supersofts (+1.7). Due to the relatively high tire wear on the soft tires his decision to delay his pitstop was probably the right thing to do.
Pérez (3) was just incredibly fast on softs (+0.2s), but considerably slower on supersofts (+2.1s).
Räikkönen (4) was estimated to be the fastest driver on the race. On softs. On supersofts he was a massive 2.6 seconds slower, although this figure is not very reliable as he pitted early. Perhaps that early stop really cost him later in the race.

Hamilton (5) showed his true pace in a only few laps in the race, as he was in traffic on supersofts (+1.9) and in the wrong engine mode for most of his stint on softs (+0.9). In the last laps he wasn't even pushing as he felt he was too far behind. A horrible race.

Bottas (6) was still slightly slower than that at +2.2 on supersofts and +1.2 on softs. He had the highest top speeds of all, but unlike the Red Bulls his tire wear was pretty good. The pace just wasn't there, so possibly he had to drive very carefully to keep the tires alive.

Ricciardo (7) saw his supersofts drop off after just 3 laps, which resulted in a disappointing pace (+2.8). On the softs he wasn't too bad (+1.5), but still he had to switch to the mediums (+1.6).
Verstappen (8) was really struggling on the supersofts (+4.4). He was a little better on the softs (+1.8), but he really came alive on the mediums (+1.3).
Hülkenberg (9) was on the counter strategy, but it didn't really work out very well. His pace on softs wasn't particularly good (+2.1) and he was faster on supersofts (+1.7) until those tires hit the cliff.

Massa (10) had to convert to a 2-stopper, unlike his teammate. His tires gave up in the last stint and therefore he was unable to attack. On the soft tire his pace wasn't great (+1.7) and on the supersofts he was just slow (+3.1).
Button (11) was very slow on the supersofts (+3.9), but much better on the softs (+1.8).
Nasr (12) finally had a good race. His pace was a bit disappointing on the supersofts (+3.8). but he was much faster on softs (+1.9).

Grosjean (13) was one of the few drivers who used all three available tire compounds. He was quite fast on the softs (+1.6), alright on the mediums (+2.5), but quite bad on the supersofts (+3.2).

Magnussen (14) did a very long stint to recover from his pitlane start. He was at +1.9 on softs and +3.6 in his very short stint on supersofts.

Palmer (15) was also at +2.0 on softs and quite fast on supersofts (+2.7). Still he ended up behind his teammate.

Gutiérrez (16) was remarkably fast on the supersofts (+2.8) and alright on the softs (+1.8).
Ericsson (17) was too slow on softs (+2.8) and a bit better on supersofts +2.6 in his short middle stint.
Haryanto (18) pitted at the end of the first lap and managed to finish the race without stopping again. His tire wear wasn't that impressive, however. His pace on the softs was +3.2.

Sainz (retired) was fast on the supersofts (+2.2) and alright on softs (+1.6). Should have been fast enough for points.

Alonso (retired) was a bit better than Button on the supersofts (+3.0), but slower on the softs (+2.1). Was about to lose his position before the car broke down.

Wehrlein (retired) wasn't particularly fast in the race. +2.5 on the softs and +4.6 on the mediums as he started to experience brake problems.

Canada race analysis

Usually the Canadian Grand Prix is one of the more exciting races on the calendar. The track is unforgiving, a likely safety car period could easily shuffle the field and this year a wet race seemed likely. Sadly, the expectations were not met, so the 2016 Canadian Grand Prix was rather dull and uneventful. To make matters worse, it was decided by another Ferrari goof-up.

Possibly Ferrari were keen to avoid a repetition of the 2012 Canadian Grand Prix, when Alonso (Ferrari) and Vettel were swamped by a recovering Hamilton at the end of the race. Alonso's tires then hit the cliff and he even dropped to fifth place at the finish. So when the opportunity was there, Ferrari decided to go for a 2-stop strategy. It meant that Vettel, who was leading the race, lost track position to Hamilton, from which he never recovered. Hamilton's tires lasted until the end of the race, so he won.

Although Hamilton might have won the race even if Ferrari had stuck to their planned 1-stop strategy, he at least had to work harder for it. Overtaking was still incredibly hard and due to the relatively low tire wear and temperatures, the undercut was not as powerful as usual. Therefore Ferrari would have had a chance to cover Hamilton's strategy and maintain track position.

Hamilton-Vettel race analysis

Unfortunately Ferrari went for a the more risky 2-stop strategy. Even though the virtual safety car reduced the time loss associated with a pitstop, the stop was too early to be really advantageous. The timing of Vettel's second stop was about right, so after that early stop there wasn't much more Ferrari could have done better. Hamilton, in the meantime, was saving his tires, as can be seen in the Race History Chart:

Race History Chart: the Hamilton-Vettel battle.

Until his stop, Hamilton's trace follows the predicted trace rather well, but after his stop he begins to drop back. Only after Vettel's second stop he begins to speed up, so Vettel couldn't really close up on him. Even though his tires were 13 laps fresher, Vettel could only gain a few tenths per lap at most. With his tire preservation Hamilton ensured that his tires wouldn't reach the cliff, so he could easily keep Vettel, who made a couple of errors himself, at bay.

Bottas wins battle for third place

The battle for third place was also decided by tire management. The Red Bulls couldn't make the tires last to do one stop, Rosberg, who dropped to tenth place at the start, got a puncture and had to pit again, while Räikkönen was on the same weird strategy as Vettel. This allowed Bottas to finish in third place. His tire management was brilliant, but different from Hamilton's tire preservation:

Race History Chart: battle for 3rd.

Thanks to a blindingly fast pitstop and a very constant pace, Bottas managed to climb from 7th to 3rd place in the race. He also benefited from the Red Bulls' tire mismanagement. After the virtual safety car Verstappen, who was saving fuel and tires, was told to speed up as Ricciardo was a little too close behind. He duly did and soon Ricciardo started to drop back. Verstappen's tires lasted a little longer, but he too had to pit early to keep track position over the incredibly slow Räikkönen. Ricciardo dropped behind the Finn and then compounded his misery by flatspotting his tires, so he had to pit again. Verstappen's initial pace on the softs was quite good, but he started to fade just when Bottas got in clean air. The Finn quickly reduced the gap and Red Bull had no option but to pit Verstappen. The team allegedly ran out of soft tires (every driver had two sets of softs for the race, because only the soft tire was the mandatory race tire, so the story doesn't really add up. Perhaps Red Bull couldn't find the second set of soft tires in time), so they fitted ultrasofts. The softest tires gave up the ghost just as Verstappen got Bottas in sight.

Rosberg was having another poor race. His progress in the race was way too slow given the outright speed of his Mercedes. Still he had a chance to get to the podium until he got a puncture, which dropped him behind Räikkönen and Ricciardo. He managed to pass both easily, but even with a huge DRS-induced straightline speed advantage he couldn't get past Verstappen, who was the only driver who defended the inside line at the long straight. Their hard-fought battle cost them precious time, which meant that Bottas was safe in third place. Verstappen's skillful defense earned him the "Driver of the Day" title, which wasn't really deserved. Based on their qualifying performance, Red Bull should have been 3rd and 4th instead of 4th and 7th, even though their race pace wasn't so good.

Pace analysis

The underlying pace of every driver can be derived from laptime data. Slow laps and laps in traffic are excluded and the laptimes are then corrected for fuel load and tire wear. The resulting variance in laptimes can then be attributed to the driver-car combination.

The analysis confirms that tire wear was not very high. The degradation on the ultrasoft tire was about 0.068 seconds per lap, which is equal to a more substantial 0.11 seconds on a standard 5.5 km circuit. The soft tire was twice as durable. Interestingly, it seems that only the top teams really managed to get some extra pace out of the ultrasoft tire:

Relative speed on the ultrasoft and soft tires.

According to the regression line, the top teams were about 0.5 seconds per lap faster on the ultrasofts, while the backmarkers were even slower on the ultrasofts. Possibly they couldn't get the tires in their operating window, which indicates that the purple tire is rubbish. The other possibility is that the analysis doesn't control well enough for traffic.

Underlying pace, team by team

We now go to the underlying pace of the drivers, relative to Vettel's pace on ultrasoft tires.

Ferrari

Contrasting performances by the Ferrari men. Vettel was quite fast, even though he got it wrong a few times in the chicane. His pace on the ultrasofts was the fastest of all. He was about 0.5 seconds per lap slower on supersofts and he was 0.7 seconds per lap slower on softs. Räikkönen was about equally slow on all tire compounds: 1.2 seconds on ultra- and supersofts and 1.3 seconds per lap on softs.

Mercedes

Hamilton's race seems to suggest that Mercedes was still a bit faster in the race, but not much. On the soft tires Hamilton was only 0.4 seconds per lap slower than Vettel on ultrasofts, which in combination with the low tire degradation explains why Vettel couldn't really attack him. However, on the supersoft tires he was 0.1 second per lap slower than the Ferrari driver. Even though he set the fastest lap of the race, Rosberg's pace wasn't really there and he almost ran out of fuel. On both compounds he was 0.9 seconds slower than Vettel on ultrasofts.

Williams

Bottas' tire management is reflected in his strong underlying pace. Bottas was the 3rd-fastest in the race: compared to Vettel on ultrasofts he was 0.6 seconds per lap slower on ultrasofts and 1.0 second on softs. Massa's pace is affected by overheating problems, so his underlying pace couldn't be determined.

Red Bull

The Red Bulls were rather slow in the race, possibly due to fuel consumption problems in addition to their tire wear issues. Ricciardo was slightly faster than Verstappen on ultrasofts (+0.8 versus +0.9 seconds), but Verstappen was considerably faster on softs: +1.1 versus +1.4 seconds per lap.

Force India

The funny thing about the Force India drivers is that they're so different and yet performing similarly. Hülkenberg qualified in the top 10 and was therefore on a standard 2-stop strategy. His pace on the ultrasofts was quite good (+1.3 seconds), but he was rather slow on the softs (+1.8 seconds). The opposite was true voor Pérez, who started the race on softs. He couldn't get heat into them and he couldn't make them last long enough to do a 1-stopper. Still, he was faster than Hülkenberg on the same tire (+1.4 seconds). His real problem was his middle stint on ultrasofts, on which he was 2.0 seconds slower than Vettel on the same tires.

Toro Rosso

A great recovery drive by Sainz, who started from the back and finished in between the Force Indias. His race pace was good enough to beat Hülkenberg without the qualifying incident, as his speed on the ultrasofts was quite good (+1.2 seconds) and his speed on the softs was also alright (+1.5 seconds). However, it was a lackluster performance by Kvyat, who somehow managed to finish behind his teammate, even though he started five places ahead of him. His pace on the ultrasofts was not very good (+1.7 seconds) and his performance on the softs wasn't stellar either (+1.9 seconds). He has to improve quickly if he wants to keep his seat.

McLaren
After a good qualifying the McLarens suffered from high fuel consumption in the race. Button had to retire early on when the Honda consumed itself. Alonso was on a very conservative 1-stop strategy in a bid to reduce fuel consumption. He managed the tires really well and in the final laps he was allowed to turn up the wick to overtake Kvyat. His pace was rather disappointing: +1.8 on ultrasofts and +2.0 on softs.

Haas

A weekend to forget for the Hare team. Grosjean was faster in the race until his front wing broke. Gutiérrez was ill and got slower as the race progressed. According to the analysis they were equally fast on supersofts (+2.0 seconds; this result can be taken with a grain of salt as Grosjean passed Gutiérrez early in the race), but Grosjean was faster on softs: +1.9 versus +2.4 seconds.

Renault

Another weekend to forget for the French team. Both cars were miles off the pace. Magnussen wrecked his car in free practice and had to start from the back. He used a 1-stop strategy to finish ahead of the Manors and Nasr's Sauber. His pace on both compounds was over 2.5 seconds slower than Vettel's pace on ultrasofts. Palmer was one of the few retirements in the race.

Sauber

Despite a grid penalty for taking out his teammate in Monaco, Ericsson delivered his usual solid performance to finish in 15th place. He managed to beat Magnussen, even though he was slower on the ultrsofts (+2.8 seconds). He was, however, slightly faster on the soft tires (+2.5 seconds). Nasr was rear-ended by Magnussen in the first lap, which didn't do his race any good, but his pace was horrible: +3.7 seconds on ultrasofts and +2.8 seconds on softs.

Manor

Another encouraging weekend for the Manor team. Wehrlein was again able to fight the Saubers and Renaults, but due to worse tire management he could only keep Nasr and his teammate behind. He was slightly faster on the ultrasofts than on the softs: +2.6 versus +2.7 seconds per lap. Haryanto lost a lot of time due to blue flags. His pace on the ultrasoft tire was not so bad (+2.9 seconds), but his pace on the soft tire was (+3.4 seconds).